Goldman: Asian and European LNG Prices Could Jump 130%
By Tsvetana Paraskova – Mar 02, 2026, 1:27 AM CST
The escalating conflict in the Middle East is delaying LNG shipments via the Strait of Hormuz from key exporters in the region, putting severe upward pressure on spot LNG prices in Asia and the European natural gas market.
The key Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of global oil and LNG flows pass, is not formally closed. However, major shipping operators and oil and gas companies, and traders have effectively halted shipments through the narrow lane between Iran and Oman.
At least a dozen empty tankers on the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz have diverted in recent hours, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
The delay to LNG shipments from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) would see natural gas prices spiking in Europe and Asia.
A month-long halt to LNG exports via the Strait of Hormuz would push Asia’s spot LNG price to jump by 130% to $25 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), Goldman Sachs analysts say.
Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter after the United States, accounts for about 20% of global supply, all transiting the Strait, according to Kpler data.
And oil
Analysts See $100 Oil on Strait of Hormuz Disruption
By Tsvetana Paraskova – Mar 02, 2026, 12:22 AM CST
Following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, energy analysts and investment banks expect oil prices to surge this week to $90 with chances of hitting $100 per barrel if disruptions to traffic in the crucial Strait of Hormuz persist.
Early on Monday in Asian trade, oil prices had already spiked by 10% to above $80 per barrel Brent. Seeing the scale of the conflict and the already disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts expect further spikes at least this week.Citigroup expects Brent Crude to trade in the $80 to $90 per barrel range over at least the coming week in the bank’s base case.
“Our baseline view is that the Iranian leadership changes, or that the regime changes sufficiently as to stop the war within 1-2 weeks, or the US decides to de-escalate having seen a change in leadership and set back Iran’s missiles and nuclear program over the same time frame,” analysts at Citigroup wrote in a note carried by Bloomberg.
Goldman Sachs sees an $18 a barrel real-time risk premium in oil prices. However, if only 50% of flows through the Strait of Hormuz are halted for a month, the war risk premium to prices would moderate to $4 per barrel, according to Goldman.
Wood Mackenzie sees disruption in flows to push oil to above $100 per barrel.
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