Urgent cuts to global greenhouse gas emissions needed to avoid worst sea-level rise flooding in the UK, study shows
Press release issued:21 July 2026
A pioneering study has revealed that by the turn of the next century at least half a million more people in the UK will be exposed to risk of coastal flooding – a 25% increase compared to now.
The research, led by the Met Office and the University of Bristol, quantifies for the first time the scale of the UK population at threat from coastal flooding under future sea-level rise projections.
Even if current global carbon emissions pledges are met, around 1.4 million more people in the UK look set to be affected by coastal flooding risk by 2200. This rises to 1.7 million by 2300, according to the study published in Nature Communications.
Study lead author Matt Palmer, Associate Professor of Climate Science at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment and Met Office Science Fellow, said: “The oceans and ice-covered parts of the world respond very slowly to global warming, which makes sea-level rise the ‘sleeping giant’ of climate change. The result is that sea-level rise is ‘locked-in’ for centuries to come; our study quantifies the scale of the adaptation challenge and highlights how reducing greenhouse gas emissions can help avoid the worst outcomes.
“The findings highlight the importance of global action on emissions – as set out in the Paris Climate Agreement – to de-risk future sea level rise and the need to adapt to unavoidable sea-level rise in the coming decades.”
The research showed sea-levels are set to rise by between 0.4 and 0.6 metres across UK coastlines by 2100, resulting in a 13% increase in areas classified as at risk of coastal flooding. By 2300, these levels triple to between 1.2 and 1.8m, with coastal flood risk areas growing by more than half (56%).
Just two years later, the new study has found the slowdown in sea ice decline is now over.
Using the most recent satellite observations of sea ice coverage, the researchers found that the 2005 to 2024 slowdown was “temporary rather than sustained”.
Dr Duo Chan, lead author of the paper from the University of Southampton’s School of Ocean and Earth Science, said that what “looked like a pause in the early 2020s now appears to have just been a temporary slowdown within a longer-term decline”.
Sea ice area in September, when it reaches its annual minimum, has halved since 1979, when satellite measurements began.
The researchers found that between 2024 and 2025 Arctic sea ice declined by 5.8%. This is the largest year-to-year wintertime drop ever recorded.
Dr Alessandro Silvano, co-author of the paper at the University of Southampton, said this sharp drop in 2025 was unusual, but physically plausible under current Arctic warming.
Because the winter sea ice acts as an insulator between the relatively warm Arctic ocean and the much colder atmosphere, a reduction in ice will mean more ocean heat and moisture will enter the atmosphere.
Researchers drilled deep into an East Antarctic glacier and uncovered direct evidence of a process that could accelerate ice loss as the climate warms. Credit: Shutterstock
A new study uses boreholes drilled deep beneath Antarctic ice to investigate why the continent’s glaciers are accelerating.
More than half a kilometer beneath an East Antarctic glacier, sensors detected water pressure high enough to support almost all the ice above. The measurements provide the first direct confirmation that meltwater from the surface can reach the base of an Antarctic glacier, reduce friction and accelerate its movement toward the ocean.
“The Antarctic ice sheet holds 90% of the world’s glacier ice. If it were to melt completely and drain into the ocean, sea levels would rise by about 60 meters,” says Professor Shin Sugiyama of Hokkaido University.
For the study, published in Nature Communications, Sugiyama and his colleagues drilled boreholes more than 550 meters into the Langhovde Glacier in East Antarctica. They lowered cameras and pressure sensors to the glacier bed, allowing them to observe conditions that satellites cannot see from above. “Using a hot-water jet, we could carefully and rapidly drill into the glacier and measure the water pressure right at its base,” explains Sugiyama.
Watch the episodes explaining the reason for next worsening stage of global warming:
How the Super El Niño Could Reignite the Climate Movement
105K VIEWS
JUL 20, 2026 at 12:56 PM EDT
Environmentalist and author Bill McKibben joins Carlo to break down the politics surrounding the current climate crisis. They discuss why the debate of climate change continues to circle in and out of public attention. McKibben explains the importance of energy independence and why the clean energy transition is both an economic opportunity and environmental necessity.
As one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change, Iran’s climate crisis can only increase in severity and jeopardize the country’s future and the sustainability of its resources.
Introduction
Iran is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). It also bears significant responsibility for climate change globally and in the region, as it ranks first in the Middle East and eighth worldwide, for its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with annual carbon dioxide amounting to nearly 617 tons. These substantial emissions stem primarily from Iran’s heavy reliance on oil and natural gas. Nevertheless, the country’s rapid urbanization process has also contributed significantly to elevated air pollution levels and the formation of heat islands, where urban areas experience higher temperatures than their surroundings.
Climate change in Iran is primarily distinguished by reduced precipitation and increased temperatures. Given its location in the mid-latitude belt, this poses a particularly daunting challenge for the country, encompassing arid and semi-arid regions with yearly precipitation less than one-third of the global average. More than 82 percent of Iran is already classified as arid or semi-arid, and rain in the country only reaches approximately 250 millimeters. Iran is also the sixth most natural hazard-prone country in the world, frequently experiencing floods, landslides, and droughts.
Temperatures in Iran, an estimated average of 50-54 degrees Celsius during the hot seasons, continue to rise. Recent reports have indicated that Iran is projected to witness a mean temperature rise of 2.6°C and a 35 percent decrease in precipitation in the coming decades. The impact of such escalating heat was evident recently when the government initiated a two-day emergency shutdown due to temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the capital.
The country also faces severe water shortages. Geographically, Iran is situated in a dry region with elevated temperatures and relatively scarce rain and snowfall. The distribution of climate categories in Iran is as follows: 35.5 percent hyper-arid, 29.2 percent arid, 20.1 percent semi-arid, 5 percent Mediterranean, and 10 percent wet. Water resources play a crucial role and serve as one of the most significant limiting factors in the country’s development, with approximately 35 percent of Iranians experiencing water scarcity since the early 2000s. By 2019, Iran ranked fourth among countries at high risk of depleting their water supplies. Rising sea levels pose another long-term challenge for the country. By 2050, it is estimated that over 300 million homes will be impacted by rising coastlines, displacing over 100 million people.
This was written 2 years ago, life has only worsened for Sudanese since:
Key Takeaways
Unprecedented Environmental Toll: The ongoing war in Sudan is inflicting untold human suffering and devastating the country’s ecosystems. The conflict poses far-reaching threats to biodiversity and ecological stability, with long-term repercussions for Sudanese society including heightened climate vulnerability, deforestation, and soil degradation.
Displacement and Environmental Degradation: One of the most significant challenges is that the concentration of internally displaced people in specific areas intensifies local demand for limited resources. This creates a vicious cycle of conflict-driven migration and environmental degradation, which can only be broken through holistic interventions.
Immediate and Coordinated Action: Addressing these challenges requires rapid and coordinated actions from all stakeholders. A ceasefire is urgently needed to prevent a human and environmental catastrophe in Sudan, as well as addressing humanitarian needs in conflict hotspots and areas hosting large internally displaced populations.
Building Resilience: The conflict and associated environmental challenges necessitate urgent resilience-building strategies. These include enforcing environmental regulations, promoting sustainable land use, and investing in climate resilience and adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of both conflict and climate change on the environment and the human population.
Gaza and the Middle East: When War Burns Fossil Fuel Infrastructure
The climate consequences of war are even more staggering when fossil fuel infrastructure is involved. An analysis estimates that the Israel–Gaza war produced around 33 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent due to military operations, fires, debris, and reconstruction demands.
Similarly, news reports found that the first two weeks of the US–Israel conflict with Iran released more than 5 million tonnes of CO₂ as oil depots, industrial facilities, and urban centres burned. These emissions are comparable to the annual output of dozens of low-emitting countries.
These conflicts demonstrate how warfare directly feeds into the global emissions total, yet remains invisible in official climate accounting
The Ukraine war provides one of the clearest case studies of conflict-related emissions because scientists have attempted to quantify its full climate impact. A study estimates that the war generated roughly 77 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in just the first 18 months.
These emissions came from continuous explosions, widespread fires, and the vast amounts of fuel consumed by tanks, jets, and military convoys. They were also a result of extensive damage to energy grids, industrial sites, and fuel depots, many of which released additional pollutants when destroyed. Forests, farmland, and grasslands, crucial natural carbon sinks were burned or rendered unusable.
The study also warns that emissions associated with post-war reconstruction could surpass the emissions generated during active conflict, given the energy-intensive materials such as steel and cement that rebuilding requires.
Smoke rising from bombed cities signals human tragedy, but it also signals something less visible and equally dangerous- a surge of greenhouse gases warming the planet. Across Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, and the Middle East, war is not only destroying homes and lives; it is rapidly reshaping the climate. In conflict after conflict, the immediate crisis overshadows a slower, quieter emergency unfolding overhead. Yet scientists warn that the climate impacts of warfare are real, measurable, and largely neglected by global climate policy.
Today’s wars inject millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere through massive fuel consumption, burning infrastructure, razed ecosystems, and the carbon-intensive process of rebuilding devastated cities. This hidden climate cost intensifies global warming even as the world struggles to stay within the 1.5°C threshold.
Today’s wars inject millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere through massive fuel consumption, burning infrastructure, razed ecosystems, and the carbon-intensive process of rebuilding devastated cities. This hidden climate cost intensifies global warming even as the world struggles to stay within the 1.5°C threshold.
Warfare’s Carbon Footprint: A Blind Spot in Climate Reporting
Despite their scale, military emissions remain one of the least regulated and least reported sources of greenhouse gases. Under the Paris Agreement, countries are not required to disclose the emissions from military operations, leaving an enormous blind spot in global climate action. This is described as the military emissions gap, warning that it distorts the world’s true carbon footprint.
The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report highlights the reliance on sustainable socio-economic pathways to meet the 1.5 °C or 2 °C targets. However, these scenarios lack a quantitative assessment of the impact of global military spending on CO2 emissions. Our study shows that events such as the 2001–2011 war on terrorism and the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian war led to an increase in CO2 emission intensity of 0.04 (95% CI: 0.03–0.05) kg/USD for every 1% escalation in global military expenditure as a percentage of GDP (MILEX ratio). This increase accounts for 27% of the total change in CO2 emission intensity between 1995 and 2023. In scenarios where the global MILEX ratio exceeds thresholds of 12% (for SSP1-1.9) or 24% (for SSP1-2.6), the 1.5 °C or 2 °C climate goals would become unattainable by the end of the century, highlighting the urgent need for a more peaceful international environment to effectively limit global warming.
An Amazon warehouse employeeBernd Wüstneck/picture alliance via Getty Images
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM GMT
Amazon closed its fulfillment center operations in Abu Dhabi and suspended deliveries across the region, as the company responds to escalating instability that is rippling across its Middle East network.
Iran’s Devastating Attacks Paralyze Amazon Shipments and AWS
Alexa AlixLast Updated: March 4, 2026
5 minutes read
Drone strikes on Jebel Ali port and three Amazon data centres have frozen fulfilment across the region, leaving thousands of third-party sellers unable to ship, sell, or even log in to their stores.
The escalating military conflict in the Middle East has delivered a swift and compounding blow to Amazon’s regional e-commerce operations, disrupting both its physical logistics network and cloud computing infrastructure simultaneously, with hundreds of thousands of third-party sellers caught squarely in the crossfire.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards says they have attacked Amazon’s data infrastructure in Bahrain, according to Fars, an IRGC-linked state media account.
Russian Wildberries warehouses, including one in Moscow, have been destroyed by drone strikes, causing billions in economic damage and significant supply chain disruption. These attacks highlight a new military strategy where small drone payloads effectively ignite highly flammable targets. Warehouses are particularly vulnerable due to vast quantities of cardboard, textiles, plastics, aerosols, and batteries, which burn intensely and spread rapidly. Drones often use incendiary warheads to initiate these catastrophic fires. Although Wildberries is a civilian company, it supplied the Russian military, making its infrastructure a strategic target. This tactic demonstrates how centralized………
…..From a military perspective though, this strike, and the infernos which have engulfed other Wildberries facilities, have some important lessons for the rest of the world. Ukraine has found another weak point in the modern online economy and exploited it effectively.
The question now remains: Why did no one anticipate these major suppliers with sophisticated logistics would require strong protection during conflict?
Western Wall, in the Old City of Jerusalem, a place of prayer and pilgrimage sacred to the Jewish people. It is the only remains of the retaining wall surrounding the Temple Mount, the site of the First and Second Temples of Jerusalem, held to be uniquely holy by the ancient Jews. The First Temple was destroyed by the Babylonians in 587–586 bce, and the Second Temple was destroyed by the Romans in 70 ce.
The authenticity of the Western Wall has been confirmed by tradition, history, and archaeological research; the wall dates from about the 2nd century bce, though its upper sections were added at a later date. Texts explaining the survival of the wall vary; one suggests that God saved this fragment for the Jewish people, while another holds that Titus left it as a painful reminder of the Roman defeat of Judea.
Because the wall now forms part of a larger wall that surrounds the Muslim Dome of the Rock and Al-Aqsa Mosque, Jews and Arabs have frequently disputed control of the wall and, often, right of access to it. That conflict has been particularly heated since the Israeli government took full control of the Old City in the wake of the Six-Day War of June 1967.
Arab and Muslim countries condemn Israeli storming of Al-Aqsa Mosque
Story by Al Jazeera Staff
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Israeli settlers at Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem on July 23 [File: Ilia Yefimovich /AFP]
Eight Arab and Muslim-majority countries have strongly condemned the storming of the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem by far-right groups and thousands of Israeli settlers.
In a joint statement issued on Thursday, the foreign ministers of Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and the United Arab Emirates denounced the “mass incursions by settlers led by extremist Israeli ministers into the Noble Sanctuary” of Al-Aqsa.
More than 4,200 Israeli settlers and members of far-right groups stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound on Thursday, one of the largest incursions this year, to mark the Jewish holiday of Tisha B’Av.
![Israeli settlers at Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem on July 23 [File: Ilia Yefimovich /AFP]](https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA28yJ9z.img?w=768&h=512&m=6 "Israeli settlers at Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem on July 23 [File: Ilia Yefimovich /AFP]")
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