Requests to store distillate fuel in tanks with a railroad connection soared to 250,000 barrels in March, up from 30,000 barrels in February and none in January, according to The Tank Tiger, a terminal storage clearinghouse. And as of last week, there have already been requests for 125,000 barrels worth of storage in April.
All of those requests occurred on the East Coast and Gulf Coast, the key export hubs for the fuel.
Meanwhile, stocks of the fuel are falling, and near their lowest since last July on the Gulf Coast. That could mean Midwest refiners may see an opportunity to profit by exporting diesel overseas. To do that, they need to send their fuel to the coasts. While those shipping routes are possible by pipeline to the East Coast, it could be economically viable to send the fuel by railcar for export, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
And while pipelines connect the Midwest and the Gulf Coast, it’s not possible to send physical product all the way to the coast from the Midwest on a pipeline — meaning a railcar or a barge become the only viable options to send fuel for export in that direction, Lipow said.
Nationally, 9,112 railcars worth of petroleum products were delivered to terminals in March, up nearly 10% from March 2025, according to The Tank Tiger’s data.
“Exports from the coast can be attractive for Midwest refiners, particularly for diesel, when shortages overseas strengthen export economics and justify moving barrels toward coastal outlets,” said Steven Barsamian, chief operating officer at The Tank Tiger.
Diesel is vital to the world economy because it powers essential freight, construction and agriculture sectors. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, the more intense the competition for oil and products is likely to become.
Trump is encouraging further depletion of US diesel:
Trump signals tankers headed to US to load up ‘sweetest’ oil: ‘We are waiting for you’
Story by Sophie Brams
• 6d
The Hill
‘We’re ready to go,’ Trump warns if Iran peace talks falter | NewsNation
President Trump said Saturday morning that “massive numbers” of empty tankers are headed to the U.S. to stock up on oil and gas, as Iran continues to restrict movement in the Strait of Hormuz.
Wall Street has been whipsawed for more than a week by President Trump’s every word about tariffs. Now he’s facing accusations of using his power to deliberately manipulate the markets.
The scrutiny started with a tale of two social media posts. On Wednesday, shortly after the U.S. stock market opened, Trump posted on his Truth Social network in all caps: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”
Less than four hours after his post, Trump said on Truth Social that he would pause the harshest of his tariffs on most countries.
Stocks immediately skyrocketed in relief, with the Dow closing up almost 3,000 points — meaning that any investors who had followed Trump’s advice in the morning and bought into the stock market right away would have made quite a bit of money by the end of the day.
Prior to his post, share prices had been plummeting for days, as fears mounted about the economic damage Trump’s new trade policies could cause. Powerful investors and billionaire business leaders had increasingly gone public airing their worries about the new tariffs and the resulting financial panic.
By Wednesday afternoon, Trump seemed to hear them when he hit pause.
Meloni, Starmer, Macron currently polling ‘under water’. It is hard to know if such polls are truly accurate or politically biased.
YouGov is a example of a polling company which was founded by right wing members of the Conservative Party.
Here is an opinion on Reddit:
Is YouGov Impartial?
The owner of YouGov is Stephan Shakespeare. He co-founded the market research and opinion poll company in 2000 with Nadhim Zahawi, current Conservative MP for Stratford-on-Avon and Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Industry. Zahawi left the business specifically to stand for election as a Conservative candidate in 2010. Shakespeare was a failed Conservative candidate in 1997 for MP of Colchester.
Shakespeare was appointed by the Conservative government as Chairman of the Data Strategy Board (DSB). This is an advisory body which was set up to ‘maximise value of data for users across the UK’. He was also announced in 2012 by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and Cabinet Office ministers as leader of an Independent Review of Public Sector Information. He has also been a member of the Government’s Public Sector Transparency Board and shows on the most recent board minutes from 2015.
He was former owner of the centre-right political blog, ConservativeHome, now owned for Lord Ashcroft. He was also involved in other right-wing projects and web-sites including 18 Doughty Street, an online broadcast critiquing left-leaning commentary and opinion pieces.
YouGov has now expanded its involvement into market research businesses in the Middle East, the United States, Germany, Scandinavia, France, and Asia.
YouGov brands itself as ‘What the world thinks’, but is it only selectively representing public opinion when its origins lie clearly on the right wing of politics?
Concerns are mounting over food shortages aboard US warships deployed to the Middle East, with reports from service members on the USS Tripoli and USS Abraham Lincoln describing limited and poor-quality meals.
USS Abraham Lincoln
Dan F., whose daughter is a Marine aboard the USS Tripoli, told USA Today he was alarmed after seeing a photo of her meal. “A lunch tray, two-thirds empty, carried one small scoop of shredded meat and a single folded tortilla,” he said. Another image from the USS Abraham Lincoln showed “a small handful of boiled carrots, a dry meat patty and a gray slab of processed meat.”
Family members say service members are rationing food. Dan’s daughter told him fresh produce was unavailable and that supplies were running low. “We have the strongest military in the world. You shouldn’t be running out of food,” he said. “The one thing we had over our adversaries [was] we fed our people.”
A sailor aboard the Tripoli echoed those concerns, saying crew members “eat when they can” and divide food evenly. “Supplies are going to get really low… morale is going to be at an all-time low,” he wrote in a message to family.
Efforts by families to send food and essentials have been complicated by a suspension of military mail. The US Postal Service halted deliveries to 27 military ZIP codes in the region due to “airspace closures and other logistical impacts from the ongoing conflict,” according to Army spokesperson Maj. Travis Shaw. The suspension remains “in effect until further notice.”
Packages already sent, including those filled with snacks, hygiene products, and essentials, are now stuck in transit. “No military mailings are being returned to the sender… they are held until they can be delivered,” USPS spokesperson David Coleman said.
Communities across the US have rallied to send care packages, but many have not reached their destinations. “The food is tasteless and there’s not nearly enough and they’re hungry all the time,” said Karen Erskine-Valentine, a West Virginia pastor supporting deployed sailors. “That kind of breaks your heart.”
With no clear timeline for restoring mail service and warships remaining at sea for extended deployments, families say uncertainty is growing, both about supplies and the well-being of their loved ones.
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Over 70% of GCC food imports typically arrive via the Strait of Hormuz, which is a crucial maritime chokepoint for shipping. The ongoing conflict in the region has significantly disrupted this route, forcing GCC countries to activate emergency protocols and reroute logistics. agroberichtenbuitenland.nl
Thousands of US troops are stationed in the GCC. Maersk is assisting GCC since March 26th using land bridges:
Danish container shipping group A.P. Moller-Maersk (MAERSKb.CO), opens new tab is using a “land-bridge” system via ports in Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, Salalah and Sohar in Oman and Khor Fakkan in the United Arab Emirates, to funnel in cargo before moving it by land to destinations across the Gulf region.
Charles van der Steene, Dubai-based regional managing director for the Middle East, said Maersk was ramping up the network and coordinating with Gulf governments, which have introduced faster procedures to speed deliveries.
While it is prioritising critical goods, namely food and medicines, there is still capacity to spare on these alternative routes, he added.
Cargo volumes into the port in Jeddah have jumped 40% since the conflict began, van der Steene said.
Israeli bombings in Lebanon, April 8, 2026. X/ @BradSocha
Current Displacement Figures in Lebanon
As of now, more than one million people have been displaced in Lebanon due to the ongoing conflict and violence. This represents a significant portion of the population, with many fleeing their homes under urgent circumstances.
Breakdown of Displacement
CategoryNumber of Displaced PeopleTotal Displaced1,000,000+Children Displaced300,000+Registered with Government517,000+Sheltering in Collective Sites120,000+
Context of Displacement
The displacement has been driven by intense airstrikes and evacuation orders, particularly affecting southern Lebanon and the Beirut area.
Many displaced individuals are seeking refuge with family or friends, while others are living in makeshift shelters or on the streets.
The humanitarian situation is critical, with urgent needs for food, shelter, and medical assistance.
This ongoing crisis continues to evolve, and the number of displaced individuals may increase as the situation develops.
“Just today, Netanyahu launched his harshest attack against Lebanon since the offensive began. His contempt for life and international law is intolerable. It’s time to speak clearly: Lebanon must be included in the ceasefire. The international community must condemn this new violation of international law. The European Union must suspend its Association Agreement with Israel. And there must be no impunity for these criminal acts,” the Span
3 years of bloodshed in Sudan, and Lebanon’s civilians the victims of the war. Pope calls for peace.
Pope Leo is again calling for peace in Lebanon, noting that individual consciences and international law should lead to protecting civilians.
Negotiations are scheduled to begin in the coming days in Washington between Lebanese and Israeli diplomats; the Pope did not comment on the breakdown of negotiations between the United States and Iran.
In these days of sorrow, fear, and unwavering hope in God, I feel closer than ever to the beloved people of Lebanon. The principle of humanity, inscribed in the conscience of every person and recognized in international law, entails a moral obligation to protect the civilian population from the horrific effects of war. I call on the parties in the conflict to declare a ceasefire and urgently seek a peaceful solution.
Pope Leo also drew attention to the ongoing situation in Sudan, which continues to create the greatest humanitarian crisis in the world.
Next Wednesday marks the third anniversary of the start of the bloodstained conflict in Sudan. How much the Sudanese people are suffering, innocent victims of this inhuman tragedy! I renew my fervent appeal to the warring parties to silence their weapons and begin, without preconditions, a sincere dialogue aimed at ending this fratricidal war as soon as possible.
Some history (since the end of the Ottoman Empire)
France was in Lebanon during the French Mandate from 1923 to 1946, following the end of World War I and the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire. The mandate officially established Greater Lebanon, which later became the modern Lebanese Republic. Wikipedia toulamuseum.com
And despite Arabic being spoken, French is still taught in schools:
In today’s education system, French remains a compulsory school language in most schools, making it the most taught foreign language in Lebanon. From elementary school to high school, the majority of classes are taught in French. This results in a large portion of the population speaking the language. Between 40% to 50% of Lebanese people are also French speakers.
France plays a significant role in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, particularly in defense cooperation and economic growth. The two countries have strengthened their ties through defense agreements, cultural exchanges, and business investments, with France supporting Saudi Arabia’s military capabilities and economic diversification efforts. newarab.com tacticalreport.com
The incentive to join Hezbollah:
Many Lebanese, particularly those who experienced humiliation or personal loss during Israeli occupation (between 1982 and 2000), chose to join the resistance, with some aligning with Hezbollah or affiliated groups like the Lebanese Resistance Brigades, taking on roles in combat, logistics, and intelligence.321 Hezbollah has been recruiting members from within its stronghold in the Shia dominated areas, including in the southern Lebanon region.322 As of December 2024, Hezbollah has started recruiting ‘new fighters and was trying to find ways to rearm through domestic production and by smuggling materials through Syria’.323 However, Daher stated that ‘Hezbollah does not actively recruit members; instead, individuals seek to join, and there are usually more volunteers than available positions. Joining the group and leaving is done on volunteer basis.’324
Daher further noted that ‘the group’s legitimacy, particularly for its fight against Israel’s occupation and annexation of the south of the country (1978-2000) and continued bombings, alongside the rise of Hassan Nasrallah as a leader (1992-2024), has strengthened recruitment dynamics’.325 According to an October 2024 study by UMAM Documentation and Research, Hezbollah recruited and indoctrinated children through its 18 Al Mahdi Schools, mosques, hussainiyas (Shia religious centres) and hawzat (seminaries) in areas under its control.326 However, Daher stated that ‘Hezbollah does not recruit children, and that Hezbollah leadership has issued fatwas explicitly prohibiting the recruitment of child soldiers’.327 The source further noted that ‘recruitment is carried out through personal networks and word of mouth, and that there have been isolated cases of Druze and Christians converting in order to join Hezbollah’.328
It’s a catastrophe on the way to becoming a cataclysm.
Trump is rapidly going stark-raving mad. He’s a clear and present danger to the United States and the world.
Yesterday he lashed out at The New York Times after its chief White House correspondent questioned his mental health and stability and pointed to his “erratic behavior and extreme comments.”
“HAVE THEY NO SHAME? HAVE THEY NO SENSE OF DECENCY?” Trump posted in CAPITAL LETTERS about the Times, inadvertently echoing the famous words of Joseph Welch when standing up to Joseph McCarthy during the Army-McCarthy hearings of 1954. Trump went on to take issue with the Times’s coverage of his war in Iran rather than his mental state, as if to prove the Times’s point.
He keeps saying he’s “won” the war with Iran, although he’s never said what “winning” means. At one moment his goal is to free Iran’s people. At another, it’s to end Iran’s capacity to produce a nuclear weapon. At another, to destroy Iran’s missiles. At another, to achieve “regime change.” At another, to open the Strait of Hormuz (which was open before Trump started his war). At another, he says he’ll know the U.S. military operation in Iran is over when he feels it “[in] my bones.”
He can’t even stay on the same subject for more than a few minutes. In the middle of a high-level Cabinet meeting about the war, he spends five minutes talking about his preference for Sharpie pens. He interrupts another Iran war update to praise the White House drapes.
He threatens that if Iran doesn’t reopen the strait, “a whole civilization will die tonight.” Then he says America doesn’t need the strait reopened. Then he says: “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
He calls the Pope “WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy” because the Pope wants peace. He posts an AI-generated picture of himself as Jesus, then says he was only depicting himself as a physician.
He won’t give up on his illegal and dangerous (for the economy) criminal investigation of Fed Chief Jerome Powell, claiming it’s not just about Powell’s renovations at the Fed but also a “probe on incompetence,” adding he’ll fire Powell if he doesn’t resign after his term as chair ends.
After Robert Mueller’s death, he says, “Good, I’m glad he’s dead.” He blames the murders of Rob Reiner and his wife Michelle on “the anger [Rob Reiner] caused others through his massive, unyielding, and incurable affliction with a mind crippling disease known as TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME.” After Joe Biden is diagnosed with an aggressive form of Stage 4 prostate cancer, Trump says, “I’m surprised that the public wasn’t notified a long time ago because to get to Stage 9, that’s a long time” (there is no Stage 9 cancer).
He’s been losing it for a while now, but in the last few months it’s become far worse.
In 2017, 27 psychiatrists, psychologists, and other mental health professionals concluded in The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump that Trump’s mental condition posed a “clear and present danger” to the nation.
In 2021, members of Trump’s own Cabinet — horrified by the January 6, 2021, violence at the Capitol and Trump’s lack of urgency in stopping it — discussed whether to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove him from office due to mental incompetence.
During his 2024 campaign, he attacked Kamala Harris and then went into the stratosphere of his bonkers mind:
“She destroyed the city of San Francisco, it’s – and I own a big building there – it’s no – I shouldn’t talk about this, but that’s OK, I don’t give a damn because this is what I’m doing. I should say it’s the finest city in the world – sell and get the hell out of there, right? But I can’t do that. I don’t care, you know? I lost billions of dollars, billions of dollars. You know, somebody said, ‘What do you think you lost?’ I said, ‘Probably two, three billion. That’s OK, I don’t care.’ They say, ‘You think you’d do it again?’ And that’s the least of it. Nobody. They always say, I don’t know if you know. Lincoln was horribly treated. Uh, Jefferson was pretty horribly. Andrew Jackson, they say, was the worst of all, that he was treated worse than any other president. I said, ‘Do that study again, because I think there’s nobody close to Trump.’ I even got shot! And who the hell knows where that came from, right?”
It’s no longer possible to overlook his conspiracy-obsessed paranoia, his uncontrolled rage, his emotional volatility, his delusional claims, his vengeful rantings, his foul-mouthed posturing, his increasing detachment from reality.
Yet his Cabinet members and aides keep their heads down. Republican members of Congress pretend not to notice. His billionaire supporters dare not speak of his rapid decline. The media tries to “sanewash” his growing incoherence.
But some voices on the right — people who have long been supporters of Trump — have had enough.
Former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene says Trump’s threat to destroy Iran’s civilization is “not tough rhetoric, it’s insanity.” Far-right podcaster Candace Owens calls him “a genocidal lunatic.” Conspiracy theorist Alex Jones says Trump “does babble and sounds like the brain’s not doing too hot.” A White House lawyer in Trump’s first term, Ty Cobb, says Trump is “clearly insane.” Former Trump White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham says “he’s clearly not well.”
The public is catching on. Fully 61 percent of Americans think he’s become more erratic with age, while just 45 percent say he is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges” (down from 54 percent in 2023).
For the good of the nation and the world, it’s time we face the reality: The most powerful man in the world does not have the mental capacity to do the job. Donald Trump — who has a family history of dementia — is increasingly unhinged.
We are all endangered. What happens if, in a demented rage, he hurls a nuclear bomb? Who is watching the “football” with the nuclear codes? Who’s ready to stop him to save the world?
And global discussions are taking place as our world economy collapses after Trump and Netanyahu’s illegal war on Iran:
Mental health professionals state that Trump exhibits typical behaviors associated with Cluster B personality disorders, which include antisocial personality disorder, borderline personality disorder, and narcissistic personality disorder. Antisocial personality disorder, characterized by a lack of empathy toward others, is commonly referred to as sociopathy. Borderline personality disorder features impulsive behavior and intense emotional reactions, often requiring psychological therapy or medication.
▶ A domestic mental health authority emphasized that Trump distinctly displays traits of narcissistic personality disorder. Diagnosis requires meeting at least five of nine criteria, and Trump reportedly aligns with nearly all of them. Key characteristics of this disorder include an exaggerated sense of self-importance, an excessive need for admiration, and a lack of empathy toward others. The Jesus AI image exemplifies his overestimation of self-importance. His demand for excessive admiration often escalates into anger, as seen in his sudden imposition of tariffs on China at hundreds of percent. Trump has also mocked a Hollywood director couple who lost their son last year, among countless instances of apparent insensitivity to others’ suffering.
Trump’s mental health issues were widely debated during his first term. Ahead of the 2024 election, over 200 U.S. mental health experts warned that Trump exhibits “malignant narcissism, a serious and incurable personality disorder,” marked by deceitfulness, destructiveness, paranoia, and danger. While the Goldwater Rule prohibits psychiatrists from commenting on individuals they have not personally examined, these experts felt compelled to issue warnings.
▶ Another domestic mental health professor noted, “While Trump clearly shows narcissistic personality traits, it is difficult to conclude that he is dysfunctional as a president or individual.” The professor added, “Many of his remarks and actions are reprehensible, but it is unclear whether they stem from a personality disorder or political intent.” There have been no reports of Trump undergoing mental health treatment. The global community may need to endure “this Trump” for a significant period longer.
Terrence Goggin (Substack) suggests it would take 100,000 US troops to take over the free and open running of the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the illegal war began against Iran.
As of July 2025 to Feb 2026 there were probably 50,000 maximum stationed in the GCC. Since April 1, 2026, between 10 to 20,000 may have been added, though those in Bahrain were evacuated home. Each US aircraft carrier carries around 6,000 troops (there are 3 in the GCC region).
Mapping US troops and military bases in the Middle East
The United States has maintained a military presence in the Middle East for decades, currently stationing between 40,000 and 50,000 troops across at least 19 sites.
Note, Iranian trust in US peace talks is non existent:
During the recent peace talks between the US and Iran, Iranian officials expressed suspicion that the US was not negotiating in good faith, citing previous instances where military actions occurred while talks were ongoing. This has led to concerns that the US may be using military pressure as a tactic in the negotiations. Axios Wikipedia
And in Lebanon:
Trump says Israeli strikes on Lebanon a ‘separate skirmish’ not part of Iran ceasefire
Smotrich urges Israel to annex southern Lebanon as assault intensifies
Israel’s far-right finance minister says Litani River must be ‘the new Israeli border’, as attacks on Lebanon ramp up.4 mins
The United Nations says more than 1.2 million people have been displaced across Lebanon since early March amid Israel’s intensified attacks [Adri Salido/Getty Images]
Israel’s far-right minister of finance, Bezalel Smotrich, has urged his country to annex southern Lebanon, as the military has destroyed bridges and homes in an intensified assault on the area.
In an Israeli radio interview on Monday, Smotrich said that the bombardment of Lebanon “needs to end with a different reality entirely”, which includes a “change of Israel’s borders”.
A 29-year-old California man has been arrested for allegedly causing $500 million in damage when he set fire to a Kimberly-Clark warehouse to protest the cost of living and the Iran War.
“All you had to do was pay us enough to live,” the Justice Department’s indictment alleges he said in video posted to Instagram. “[T]hey had it coming … fucking eight hours, six days … stuck paying rent on a bullshit ass apartment that I can’t afford to fucking live … pedophiles out here fucking children, profiting off … fucking wars.”
In a press conference, Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli went out of his way to stress that the defendant had “compared himself to Luigi Mangione” in a comment to a witness.
No one was injured in the early morning fire, but Justice wants to make a point: Chamel Abdulkarim’s target was the system of capitalism itself.
Arson, and admittedly a serious case (if the government is correct); and politically motivated, given the remarks Abdulkarim made.
But Mangione? The FBI and the national security machine is going to jump on this, affirming for them that a “copycat” terrorist points to a bigger trend lurking in society.
That fact is at the very center of NSPM-7 — national security presidential memorandum 7 — signed by President Trump last September, that identifies “anti-capitalism” as a so-called indicator of domestic terrorism. The directive opens with a section that mentions “the 2024 assassination of a senior healthcare executive” — i.e. Luigi Mangione — as indicative of a growing threat.
Take a look at what the federal indictment focuses on, alleging Abdulkarim said:
“[S]hould have paid us enough to fucking live.”
“1% is a fucking joke.”
“If you’re not going to pay us enough to fucking live or afford to live, at least pay us enough not to do this shit.”
“Billionaires profiting off of war …”
[Y]ou know, we may not get paid enough to fucking live, but these bitches dirt cheap”
“All you had to do was pay us enough to live. Pay us more of the value WE bring. Not corporate. Didn’t see the share holders picking up a shift.”
“[T]hey had it coming … fucking eight hours, six days, [unintelligible] stuck paying rent on a bullshit ass apartment that I can’t afford to fucking live … pedophiles out here fucking children, profiting off [unintelligible] fucking wars.”
US Attorney Essayli goes on to cast the arson attack as a sign of anti-capitalist sentiment, promising to “aggressively” pursue anyone who attacks capitalism — or “our way of life,” as he put it:
“Look, America is founded on free enterprise and capitalism. Anyone who attacks our values, our way of life, our system, which provides the best goods and services to the most people, we’re gonna come after aggressively.”
By contrast, state authorities did not portray the crime as some sort of threat to capitalism. In fact, San Bernardino County District Attorney Jason Anderson seemed to not understand it at all.
“Arson, to me, is a real head scratcher; I do not understand that somebody who is suspected of arson does something where they get no value out of it,” Anderson said at the press conference.
They still don’t get it.
While reporting on this, when I tried to figure out what exactly the suspect’s job entailed while working for Kimberly-Clark — the company whose 1.2 million square foot facility he allegedly set on fire — I realized that he didn’t actually work for them, but for a third-party contractor, something called “NFI Industries.”
The dreary name reminds me of reporting on Amazon warehouses and hearing one worker after another bitterly refer to its much-hyped $15 minimum wage as not applying to them because they worked for similar subcontractors. This two-step is also how Amazon can claim it’s not them but rather the contractors responsible for the infamous practice of workers having to pee in bottles to meet their punishing quotas.
NFI has been accused of similar practices and was sued in 2015 by New Jersey port and warehouse truckers who said the company systematically misclassified them as “independent contractors” while exercising full employer‑style control. In 2022, a federal judge ruled in the driver’s favor, ordering NFI to pay them over $5 million in a class action settlement.
The obscene price of gasoline as a result of the Iran war (part of our hallowed “way of life,” which allows oil companies to price gouge even in emergencies) has once again thrust the cost of living into the spotlight. Millions of Americans resonate with Mangione and Abdulkarim.
Isn’t anyone in power curious why that is?
As a friend told me today when I brought up the Kimberly-Clark fire: Who that’s worked a shitty job hasn’t fantasized about burning it all down? (This is literally the plot of the cult classic movie Office Space!)
Democrats and Republican politicians alike mouth “affordability” but do nothing. Civil government is also starved, bled of resources by our national security colossus that devises more and more ways to spy on anyone opposed, or drowns out their voices by flooding the media with security-speak.
There are basically two ways the government can respond to things like the Kimberly-Clark fire: (1) treat them as national security threats to be monitored and preempted forever; or (2) address the underlying grievances causing them.
The 1979 Revolution and the Sectarianization of Geopolitics
The catalyst for the contemporary “New Middle East Cold War” was the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini overthrew the secular, Western-aligned monarchy and birthed the Islamic Republic, a theocracy built on the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist).
Crucially, Khomeini didn’t just want to govern Iran; he wanted to export his pan-Islamic revolution, urging oppressed populations across the region to rise against their rulers. For Saudi Arabia—the global bastion of orthodox Sunni Wahhabism and the guardian of the holy cities of Mecca and Medina—revolutionary Iran was an existential threat. The Saudi monarchy’s legitimacy relies on religious credentials and stability. Iran offered a radical alternative that threatened to incite Saudi Arabia’s own marginalized Shia minority in its oil-rich Eastern Province, as well as destabilize neighboring Gulf monarchies.
The region quickly polarized into two heavily armed camps: the conservative, status quo Sunni bloc (Saudi Arabia) and the revisionist, revolutionary Shia bloc (Iran). The conflict intensified dramatically following the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq. By dismantling Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-dominated regime, the U.S. inadvertently handed control to Iraq’s Shia majority. This removed the primary strategic buffer containing Iranian influence, allowing Tehran to project power into the Arab heartland and accelerating Saudi efforts to counter this new “Shia Crescent.”
The Game Theory of Perpetual Conflict
The strategic decisions of Saudi Arabia and Iran aren’t just driven by religious fervor; they perfectly match the economic and mathematical principles of Game Theory, specifically the “Prisoner’s Dilemma.”
In this strategic interaction, both nations have two choices: Cooperate (de-escalate, respect borders, and stop funding militias) or Defect (fund militant groups, build asymmetric weapons, and subvert the other’s stability).
If we assign a “utility score” from 0 (absolute worst outcome) to 4 (the ultimate victory), the mechanics of this rivalry become terrifyingly clear. If both nations cooperate, they achieve a moderate, shared benefit of regional stability and economic growth (a score of 3 for each). However, if one nation cooperates while the other defects, the aggressive defector achieves regional hegemony (a score of 4), while the peaceful cooperator is left severely vulnerable—suffering what theorists call the “sucker’s payoff” (a score of 0).
Because the Middle East lacks an overarching authority to enforce agreements, there is profound ideological mistrust. Neither side can credibly commit to peace (a concept known as Robert Powell’s “commitment problem”). Therefore, the rational choice for both states is to constantly Defect.
If both states defect, the result is a perpetual proxy war (a score of 1 for each). In game theory, this is known as a “Nash Equilibrium”—a degraded, highly costly stalemate. Both states pour billions into proxy wars, locked in a cycle of hostility that neither can abandon without risking total strategic ruin. Furthermore, this rivalry is defined by Thomas Schelling’s concept of brinkmanship. Both states push conflicts to the absolute edge of disaster to extract concessions, using proxy militias to inflict damage while staying just below the threshold of direct state-on-state warfare, which would invite mutually assured destruction. Solving this requires what theorists call “Mechanism Design”—deliberately expanding the options available to create verifiable incentives that make cooperation the rational choice.
Another good read on Substack (Rydro Abbas) about historic Shia and Sunni beliefs of Palestinians:
The long history of Palestinian Shias, what the Wahhabis, Salafis and British Shias won’t tell you
A Muslim nation of millions and not having a single Shia is an absurd, illogical and unrealistic claim, especially when you consider the history and the shared borders with southern Lebanon
Today, when we speak about Shiaism, some people quickly link it to the Islamic Republic of Iran and its “expanding influence”, completely disregarding the actual history of Shiaism in the West Asian region, as in reality, it originates from the Arab nations, not as they like to claim and pretend.
When the mention of Shiaism is brought up about an Arab nation, especially when it is a Sunni majority nation, the matter completely differs as the Salafis and Wahhabis’ sensitivity increases and they become defensive, pretending like Shiaism belongs to Islamic Republic of Iran and it is all due to their influence and them promoting such belief.
The matter reaches its most extreme case with most ignorant denial and rejection of Shiaism in Palestine, where they claim that Palestine has no Shias, and in rare occasions when they acknowledge the Shia presence, they make it like it is due to them being influenced by Iran, rather than Shiaism being found organically, to paint the image that Shias and or Shiaism are not indigenous, as they are completely foreign.
This frustration and delusion stem from their collective failure as a nation for letting the Palestinians down in their struggle, so they fear the tiniest thing for the nation to have in common with the Shia world far more than the disappointment their entire leadership are responsible of.
A Muslim nation of millions and not having a single Shia is an absurd, illogical and unrealistic claim, especially when you consider the history and the shared open borders with southern Lebanon in the past—and even today’s factors.
Before the israeli occupation, the borders were open between northern Palestine and southern Lebanon, making that the mixing of people much easier, as they travel back and forth, social links were common as some Palestinians would marry from the Lebanese and vise versa, especially the Palestinians of Galilee, eventually this leads to adaption of some beliefs, including religious ones, Sunni or Shia. And this was even before the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, before the occupation.
And Pakistan?
The majority of Muslims in Pakistan are Sunni, comprising about 85-90% of the population, while Shia Muslims make up approximately 10-15%. Both sects have significant cultural and religious influence in the country. SBS Wikipedia
Egypt is also assisting in peace talks:
Egyptian Muslims make up about 90% of the population, primarily adhering to Sunni Islam, while a small minority follow Shia Islam. The country has a rich Islamic heritage and is home to significant religious institutions, such as Al-Azhar University, which is one of the oldest centers of Islamic learning in the world. Wikipedia SBS
And Turkey is assisting too:
Turkey predominantly practices Sunni Islam, with about 90% of the Muslim population identifying as Sunni, primarily following the Hanafi school of jurisprudence. The Shia population, mainly consisting of Alevis and Ja’faris, makes up approximately 10% of the Muslim community in Turkey. Wikipedia
And Lebanon:
Lebanon is known for its religious diversity, with the main groups being Muslims (approximately 54%) and Christians (around 40.5%). The Muslim population is primarily composed of Shia and Sunni Muslims, while Christians include Maronite and Greek Orthodox denominations. Wikipedia WorldAtlas
When Sunnis outnumber Shias:
Sunnis outnumber Shias globally, which can influence dynamics during peace talks, as their larger population may translate to greater political influence. However, the success of peace talks depends on various factors beyond demographics, including leadership, historical context, and geopolitical interests. religionunplugged.com Council on Foreign Relations
IMO reports 3,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers trapped in the Persian Gulf after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz. 16 ships attacked, 15,000 cruise passengers stranded.
Ships floating in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Dubai near the Strait of Hormuz on March 28, 2026. (Supplied: Sentinel Hub)
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Interviews and first-hand accounts from sailors stranded in the Persian Gulf — under threat of drone attacks, missiles, and exploding boats — reveal an increasingly dire humanitarian crisis unfolding.
Iran’s blockade of one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes, the Strait of Hormuz, has unleashed pain on global markets.
The normally busy strait has been mostly empty since the start of the war. But inside the Persian Gulf, some 2,000 ships remain.
And while the US-Israel war with Iran rages on, the crews on those stranded ships are facing their own battle of attrition.
And now the blockade along Iranian ports to deny them sales of oil:
IMF Portwatch
Strait of Hormuz reopens under Ceasefire, but 800+ ships remain stranded amid uncertainty
Shipowners are rushing to understand the fine print of a US-Iran ceasefire that could temporarily unblock the Strait of Hormuz and open an exit for more than 800 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf.
At least 2 ships exit Gulf from Iran despite US blockade: Tracking data
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A container ship (top C) sails past oil tankers anchored along Singapore straits in Singapore on April 14, 2026.
[Editor’s Note: Follow Khaleej Times live blog amid US-Israel-Iran war for the latest regional developments.]
At least two ships sailing from Iranian ports crossed the Hormuz Strait on Monday despite a US military blockade, maritime tracking data indicated Tuesday.
They were among at least four Iran-linked vessels that used the route after Washington’s blockade came into effect at 1400 GMT on Monday, according to maritime data provider Kpler.
The Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Christianna crossed after unloading 74,000 tonnes of corn at the Iranian port of Bandar Imam Khomeini, passing Iran’s Larak Island in the strait around 1600 GMT on Monday, Kpler data showed.
Iran war latest: US-sanctioned ships pass through Strait of Hormuz as Trump blockade begins
Iran has been accused of “economic terrorism” in the Strait of Hormuz. Ships have been warned they could face now capture by the US. But two tankers made it through as Trump’s blockade of the crucial route began.
Operating like an Uber taxi in the Strait of Hormuz?:
Meanwhile, as the world watches how the US will enforce its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, Malawi-flagged, Chinese-owned tanker Rich Starry passed through the waterway.
A Chinese tanker under US sanctions, which passed through the Strait of Hormuz earlier on Tuesday after the US imposed a blockade on the waterway, was seen turning back late afternoon.
Rich Starry, a medium-range tanker, initially appeared to have made the journey, becoming the first to sail through the strait since the US began its operation on Monday evening, data from MarineTraffic and VesselFinder showed. However, it was seen heading back towards Hormuz around 5.30pm UAE time. US President Donald Trump imposed the blockade after US-Iran talks in Islamabad on Saturday failed to end the war and reopen the channel.
Rich Starry, known previously as Full Star, is carrying about 250,000 barrels of methanol and the tanker and its owner, Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping, were placed under US sanctions for dealing with Iran, Reuters reported. Two more tankers under US sanctions, the Murlikishan, which has carried Russian and Iranian oil, and Panama-flagged Peace Gulf, are also attempting to pass through the strait on Tuesday, Reuters said.None of the three ships transiting the strait were heading to Iranian ports.
The article goes on to explain:
The waterway, through which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas normally passes, was effectively closed by Iran during its 40-day war with the US and Israel, leading to a surge in oil and gas prices and affecting global supply chains.
Before the war began on February 28, about 140 ships passed through the waterway each day. A maximum of 14 a day have travelled through since the two-week ceasefire was agreed to by the US and Iran on April 8. An estimated 230 vessels loaded with oil are stuck in the Arabian Gulf.
Mr Trump on Monday said 34 ships had sailed through the strait the previous day, without providing further details.
Twenty-eight commercial vessels crossed through the strait during the weekend, according to Kpler. “Traffic stayed weak on Monday, with just six commercial vessel transits versus 14 on Sunday, indicating continued subdued activity rather than any meaningful rebound,” Ana Subasic, trade risk analyst at the market intelligence firm, told The National.
The US blockade may support some incremental movement while the ceasefire holds, “particularly if owners interpret the enforcement posture as more targeted than initially feared”, Ms Subasic said.
“That said, we would stop short of describing this as a meaningful normalisation of traffic at this stage. There remains enough uncertainty around enforcement, counterparty exposure, insurance and overall operating risk from both sides that many market participants are likely to remain cautious and in a wait-and-see mode for the near term,” she added.
The US naval blockade of the strait moves the situation “from a price shock to a structural disruption of global trade”, said Raj Abrol, chief executive of risk platform Galytix.
“The impact goes well beyond energy prices – it ripples through shipping routes, insurance premiums, supply chains and input costs across every sector. This blockade only confirms that we should expect protracted volatility across all of these indicators, not a return to stability.”
Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday called the US blockade of Iranian ports “dangerous and irresponsible”.
The move by the US to increase military deployments and impose a targeted blockade will deepen the conflict and further jeopardise the safety of navigation through the strait, media reports cited ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun as saying.
China urges all parties to respect the current ceasefire and remain committed to dialogue and peace talks, the official added.
During the war, Iran earned about $9 billion from crude exports, which exceeds it daily profits before the start of the conflict, energy intelligence company Kpler found. The US blockade is expected to cut about $150 million a day in oil revenue for Tehran.
About 190 million barrels of Iranian crude are at sea, with an estimated 50 million barrels west of Singapore and 140 million east of it, and most of it is destined for China, Homayoun Falakshahi, head of oil analytics at Kpler, told The National.
UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea)
WHY EVERY COUNTRY HAS A STAKE
Singapore is not alone in expressing its concern. The Gulf states, facing direct consequences from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have also rejected Iran’s imposition of tolls and called for passage rights to be upheld. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has reiterated that such tolls would set a dangerous precedent.
It is tempting to see these rules as something that mainly benefits powerful naval states and large shipping states. However, navigational rights have never just been about the passage of warships and tanker fleets.
They were always grounded in something more fundamental that benefits all states: the freedom of trade.
Take the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), 10 are coastal or archipelagic states that have significantly benefitted from the expansion of coastal state jurisdiction under UNCLOS (with the exception of geographically disadvantaged Singapore). The Philippines and Indonesia fought for and gained vast tracts of maritime space through their archipelagic waters, while they and other coastal ASEAN states acquired 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zones (EEZs).
While these countries may not be the largest flag states in the world nor the biggest naval powers, they have critical maritime interests and are dependent on maritime trade.
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