Guess who is helping fund and provide the construction design and build for countries with no previous experience?
State-owned nuclear companies in Russia and China have taken the lead in offering nuclear power plants to emerging countries, usually with finance and fuel services. The following table charts the main influence in countries with various agreements but not yet any plants under construction (see also the relevant tables in the information pages on China and Russia):
Russia leads the world in this industrial expertise. See:
And an explanation of the process:
And the consequences for suddenly creating a demand for uranium and the fuel rods for reactors:
Concern that we are, in the UK, resorting to reintroducing the building of 8 nuclear reactors:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61010605
And in Sweden, they plan to build 10:
And worldwide, this is the only plan humans have arrived at in order to cut dependence on fossil fuels. We have dithered until it is too late for any other plan it would seem:
Those who campaigned against the use of nuclear power reactors over the past decades must be distraught.
The above link will provide information about potentially harmful practices of mining uranium when cutting corners to accelerate supply.
Understand the terrible environmental impact of abandoned uranium mines:
And what should be done:
https://www.energy.gov/lm/defense-related-uranium-mines-program
The legacy in Africa:
And then there is War – As the song goes “what is it good for? Absolutely nothing”
Abrams Tanks with depleted-uranium rounds. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warns such ammunition is “chemically and radiologically toxic heavy metal.” The Harvard International Review reports “Depleted uranium may pose a risk to both soldiers and local civilian populations. When ammunition made from depleted uranium strikes a target, the uranium turns into dust that is inhaled by soldiers near the explosion site. The wind then carries dust to surrounding areas, polluting local water and agriculture.”
Ralph Nader Newsletter, Aug 15th 2023
BHP is one of the largest mining companies in the world, and is based in SW Australia. Their website tells of the over supplied world market of uranium:
https://www.bhp.com/news/prospects/2017/11/uranium-a-tale-of-two-tails
Prices began to fall when anti-nuclear reactor sentiment was on the rise. Countries like Germany closed their reactors and built wind farms and used other technologies to generate electricity.
The global uranium (U308) market was around 73Kt in 2016.1 More than half that demand came from the Americas and eastern and western Europe combined. China was next with around one-seventh of global demand. The average age of the 129 reactor units in the Americas fleet is 37 years; western Europe’s 134 units are slightly younger (e.g. France 31 years, UK 33 years); and eastern Europe’s 52 units are slightly younger again at 28 years.2 China’s 33 units, by contrast, are 7 years old on average, while India’s 22 units are a more mature 21 years.
The fleet ages above indicate the traditional consumers of uranium are likely to face ‘extend or decommission’ decisions in scale within the next decade.
…… economics look quite competitive in China, however, and that is where we estimate the most notable growth in nuclear capacity emerging. Nuclear is in middle of the LCOE pack in India right now, but it could be eclipsed by solar and then wind over the course of the 2020s, and it never catches coal.
The clear inference is that the challenge of greening the world’s energy appetite and moving towards a more favourable long run climate outcome cannot exclude how we generate the planet’s electricity. Nuclear generation is a well-established technology that can provide affordable life-of-asset base load power in a carbon conscious fashion. That is not to say that EVs and uranium are intrinsically linked: merely that from a climatic perspective, a prima facie carbon saving (moving to EVs) is only realised if the power they use is greener than the internal combustion method being displaced
Niger, Africa, is the 7th largest uranium mining area, uranium found in the Tamgak mountain.
And the third and one of the newest (2016) uranium mines is in Namibia, Africa:
The $2-billion Husab project, a joint venture between China General Nuclear Power Holding Corp (CGNPC) and local miner Swakop Uranium, is expected to produce up to 15-million pounds of uranium a year.
Russia is gradually acquiring sources of uranium as it leads the world in conversion and enrichment to create rods for nuclear reactors.
Tanzania, Africa has a uranium mine run by Uranium1 (TENEX Group of Rosatom State Corporation).
https://www.uranium1.com/about-us/
Also there have been concerns ever since mining began in 2012:
http://www.cevreadaleti.org/conflict/mkuju-river-uranium-mine-tanzania
Home / Information Library / Nuclear Fuel Cycle / Mining of Uranium / World Uranium Mining Production
(Updated May 2023)
In 2022 Kazakhstan produced the largest share of uranium from mines (43% of world supply), followed by Canada (15%) and Namibia (11%).
Charts can be viewed by clicking on the above link.
* Data from the World Nuclear Association. NB: the figures in this table are liable to change as new data becomes available. Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding.
Mining methods have been changing. In 1990, 55% of world production came from underground mines, but this shrunk dramatically to 1999, with 33% then. From 2000 the new Canadian mines increased it again. In 2022 in situ leach (ISL, also called in situ recovery, ISR) mining accounted for over 55% of production:Methodtonnes U%In situ leach (ISL)27,30756%Underground & open pit (except Olympic Dam)18,56938%By-product30136%
Conventional mines have a mill where the ore is crushed, ground and then leached with sulfuric acid to dissolve the uranium oxides. At the mill of a conventional mine, or the treatment plant of an ISL operation, the uranium then separated by ion exchange before being dried and packed, usually as U3O8. Some mills and ISL operations (especially in the USA) use carbonate leaching instead of sulfuric acid, depending on the orebody. Where uranium is recovered as a by-product, e.g. of copper or phosphate, the treatment process is likely to be more complex.
During the 1990s the uranium production industry was consolidated by takeovers, mergers and closures, but this has diversified again with Kazakhstan’s multinational ownership structure. Over half of uranium mine production is from state-owned mining companies, some of which prioritise secure supply over market considerations. In 2021, the top 10 companies by production contributed about 90% of the world’s uranium production:
See charts by clicking on above link.
Note 1: SMCC, a joint venture between Kazatomprom and Uranium One, reported combined production of 2321 tU in 2021 at its two mines, South Inkai 4 and Akdala.
Note 2: KATCO, a joint venture between Kazatomprom and Orano, reported combined production of 2840 tU in 2021 across its two mines, Moinkum and Tortkuduk.
World uranium production and reactor requirements (tonnes U)
Sources: OECD-NEA/IAEA, World Nuclear Association
Uranium resources by country in 2021
See charts by clicking on above link.
Identified resources recoverable (reasonably assured resources plus inferred resources), to $130/kg U, 1/1/21, from OECD NEA & IAEA, Uranium 2022: Resources, Production and Demand (‘Red Book’). The total recoverable identified resources to $260/kg U is 7.918 million tonnes U.
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© 2016-2023 World Nuclear Association, registered in England and Wales, number 01215741.
Registered office: Tower House, 10 Southampton Street, London, WC2E 7HA, United Kingdom
Another reproduced source, from which I start with a quote:
Indeed, Wainwright says it may be impossible to get accurate data on uranium mining safety in all parts of the world. “Mining has been often a hidden component from consumers, often disproportionately impacting rural regions and vulnerable populations,” she says. “It is important to develop mechanisms and regulations to protect workers’ health as well as the environment.”
https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/what-are-health-and-environmental-impacts-mining-and-enriching-uranium
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July 10, 2023
Advocates of nuclear power argue it can play a key role in society’s transition away from climate-warming fossil fuels, since nuclear fuels like uranium do not emit climate pollution like coal, oil, and gas do. But nuclear fuels are dangerous substances, and proper precautions are needed to scale up their use without causing harm to the environment or to the workers mining the material.
Health risks related to mining uranium have been known for nearly a century, says Haruko Wainwright, MIT assistant professor of nuclear science and engineering and of civil and environmental engineering. In the 1930s, for example, after increased rates of lung cancer were found in miners (including children), mining companies put in early safety systems such as proper ventilation.
The atomic age boom in uranium came in the 1950s, when it was mined throughout the Southwestern U.S. to power the nation’s growing arsenal of nuclear weapons and its earliest nuclear power plants. However, Wainwright says, workers often did not know the risks of mining uranium, especially the rise in lung cancer risk via inhalation of uranium and its byproducts, and safety precautions such as ventilation were not always installed. This was especially true at mines where Native Americans worked, says Wainwright. Throughout the 1960s and 70s, members of tribes such as the Navajo mined uranium for the U.S. government in environments with slow and incomplete adoption of safety measures.
In the environment, the risk of uranium exposure is highest for communities near uranium mines or sites where it is milled into a usable form or enriched in preparation for use. Uranium exists naturally in the soil, rocks, and ocean, which means all of us are naturally exposed to a small amount of it, but large exposures are associated with cancers and kidney damage. To protect Americans, the EPA has instituted rules that set a safe limit for uranium in drinking water, mandate cleanups of accidental uranium waste releases, and regulate how abandoned uranium processing sites are dealt with.1
The situation at American uranium mines has improved over the decades. Mines today are regulated by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Environmental Protection Agency. To protect the environment, they mandate, for example, that places storing uranium waste are constructed with a 1,000-year compliance period, meaning they are built to last without leakages for at least that long.
The vast majority of uranium mining today, however, is done outside the U.S. The top producers include both wealthy countries like Canada and Australia, and developing countries such as Namibia and Kazakhstan, the world’s top producer.2 Most uranium mining in Kazakhstan, and many other places, is now done through “in situ recovery”: instead of removing ore from the ground and treating it, miners use a chemical solution to dissolve the uranium-containing material and transport it to the surface in liquid form, where the uranium-containing minerals can be recovered. “It reduces hazards associated with digging and mining, but groundwater contamination is a concern,” Wainwright says.
While groundwater is heavily monitored in the United States, less is known about the effects in other countries. Some studies have indicated that areas of Kazakhstan around uranium mines have seen water contamination3 and plausibly related health impacts.4,5
Given the well-known health hazards, uranium mines tend to have the strictest regulations among mines. The World Nuclear Organization says that Canadian and Australian mines in particular are run in accordance with regulations to prevent workers from unsafe exposure. It also notes that although “most uranium mined is done so in countries with full adoption of international recommendations, this is not the case in all parts of the world.”6
Indeed, Wainwright says it may be impossible to get accurate data on uranium mining safety in all parts of the world. “Mining has been often a hidden component from consumers, often disproportionately impacting rural regions and vulnerable populations,” she says. “It is important to develop mechanisms and regulations to protect workers’ health as well as the environment.”
Thank you to Julie Chapman of Portland, Oregon, for the question. You can submit your own question to Ask MIT Climate here.
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International license (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0).
FOOTNOTES
1 U.S. Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry: What Are the Standards and Regulations for Uranium Exposure? Accessed July 10, 2023.
2 World Nuclear Association: World Uranium Mining Production. Updated May 2023.
3 Zhanbekov, Khairulla, Almaz Akhmetov, and Augusto Vundo. “Twelve-Year Monitoring Results of Radioactive Pollution in the Kazakh Part of the Syrdarya River Basin.” Environment and Natural Resources Journal, Volume 17, Issue 1, 2019, doi:10.32526/ennrj.17.1.2019.05.
4 Saifulina, Elena, et al. “Epidemiology of Somatic Diseases and Risk Factors in the Population Living in the Zone of Influence of Uranium Mining Enterprises of Kazakhstan: A Pilot Study.” Healthcare, Volume 11, Issue 6, 2023, doi:10.3390/healthcare11060804.
5 Bersimbaev, Rakmetkazhy, and Olga Bulgakova. “The health effects of radon and uranium on the population of Kazakhstan.” Genes and Environment, Volume 37, 2015, doi:10.1186/s41021-015-0019-3.
6 World Nuclear Association: Occupational Safety in Uranium Mining. Updated March 2020.
by Andrew Moseman, MIT Climate Portal Writing Team
Related MIT GroupsMIT Department of Nuclear Science and EngineeringMIT Civil and Environmental Engineering
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: “Radioactive waste from uranium mining and milling”
World Nuclear Association: “Occupational safety in uranium mining”
Nuclear Energy Agency: “Managing Environmental and Health Impacts of Uranium Mining” (Report)
Topics
Check out these related Explainers, written by scientists and experts from MIT and beyond.
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Examples of foreign owned uranium mining accidents:
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/two-killed-niger-uranium-mine-collapse-company-says-2022-01-16
And here an article in The Conversation about the Australian mining company, BHP, and the dangers involved:
As long as nuclear reactors are being built to provide clean energy, those who supply the skills to build them will always be in demand. Uranium must always be sourced. Here is the history of uranium and of its applications since 1939:
http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2016/ph241/mcfadden1
Fig. 1: Uranium Ore (Source: Wikimedia Commons)
Uranium, seen in Fig. 1, has become a well-known item in today’s news due to its connection with the making of nuclear bombs along with negative environmental impacts. It also has been extremely useful by providing energy to the world through nuclear reactors. This paper will discuss how uranium was discovered, how it is used today, and the implications of uranium in the future. [1]
Uranium was discovered in 1789 by the German chemist Martin Heinrich Klaproth. There were no major uses of uranium until 1934 when it was discovered that uranium could emit beta rays when inundated with neutrons. [2] Enrico Fermi was the man in charge of the team that had this discovery, and they were excited by the potential energy that could be produced from it. However, it was not until 1939 that Otto Hahn and Fritz Strassmann discovered the nuclear fission capabilities of uranium. This discovery was then used to create uses of uranium such as nuclear weapons and nuclear reactors. [1]
Fig. 2: Little Boy. (Source: Wikimedia Commons)
A well-known use of uranium has been its involvement in the creation of nuclear weapons. The Manhattan Project resulted in the United States creating the world’s first nuclear weapons. Little Boy, which was the first atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima seen in Fig. 2, was uranium based. The demand for uranium went up following the end of World War II as the Cold War began between the Soviet Union and the United States. Both countries began “stockpiling” nuclear weapons that led to the thought of Mutually Assured Destruction, which deterred attacks on the other country. Uranium quickly went from an unknown entity to a highly-sought out good. [1]
Uranium also has major implications on nuclear power plants, which have become an energy source for the world. The first nuclear reactors were created in the early 1940’s, and today there are over 400 nuclear reactors in the world. The way that nuclear power plants work is it uses steam to move turbine generators to create energy. This steam is created when the uranium atoms undergo nuclear fission, which creates a lot of energy. Today, it is estimated that nuclear power supplies over 10% of the world’s energy. [3] However, nuclear power plants have received some negative press due to nuclear accidents such as Chernobyl in 1986 and the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan in 2011. [4]
There have been worries about the negative environmental impact caused by uranium. There has been a lot of contamination from fallout from nuclear tests and nuclear accidents. If a human is exposed to uranium, the way that various functions of their body operate can be drastically affected. Short-term effects of radiation can lead to sickness, while long-term exposure can lead to bigger issues such as cancer. [4] Land that has been affected by nuclear fallout can be polluted for years afterwards. These negative effects of uranium exposure have led to measures in order to control the uses of uranium. [5]
Uranium appears to be stable for the near future due to its prominence in nuclear reactors across the world. While its uses in nuclear weapons have been minimized due to disarmament treaties between countries, uranium will still be used in the future. The longevity and continued importance of uranium is strongly correlated to the future of nuclear reactors. If nuclear reactors are able to remain a long-term energy source, then uranium is here to stay. [3]
© Patrick McFadden. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] B. Goldschmidt, The Atomic Complex: A Worldwide Political History of Nuclear Energy (American Nuclear Society, 1982).
[2] N. Boh and J. A, Wheeler, “The Mechanism of Nuclear Fission,” Phys. Rev. 56, 426 (1939).
[3] L. W. Davis, “Prospects for Nuclear Power,” J. Econ. Perspect. 26, 49 (2012).
[4] G. Steinhauser, A. Brandl, and T. E. Johnson, “Comparison of the Chernobyl and Fukushima Nuclear Accidents: A Review of the Environmental Impacts,” Sci. Total Environ. 470–471, 800 (2014); ibid. 487, 575 (2014).
[5] D. Williams, “Cancer after Nuclear Fallout: Lessons from the Chernobyl Accident,” Nat. Rev. Cancer 2, 543 (2002).
Consider the impact of nuclear testing since the 1960s and the fact that those nuclear explosions in our atmosphere sent showers of radioactive particles into our soils:
I am reproducing this article since my next blogs cover the issue of viability of building nuclear reactors to supply clean energy to minimise use of fossil fuels. I would encourage my readers to access the site and become knowledgeable on the subject as consequences of pursuing all energy technologies invented to reduce use of fossil fuels has an impact on each and every one of us.
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Mobile uranium inventories have continued to decline at an accelerated rate over the last two years, driven by many factors, including: COVID-19 pandemic production declines, the advent of the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT), and strategic acquisitions by junior uranium companies to support future project financing efforts. SPUT purchased more than 24 million pounds U3O8 in 2021, or about 25% of all spot purchases. Through August 2022, the Trust has purchased an additional 16 million pounds U3O8 in the market.
Apart from the above-mentioned factors, geopolitical risk has weighed heavily on the uranium market over the last several months, beginning with civil unrest in Kazakhstan in January 2022, followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a month later. The spot uranium price reacted strongly to Russia’s military action, increasing from $43.00 in late February to a peak of $63.75 in April. The spot price has since resided in the mid- to high-$40s range. As a result of heightened geopolitical risk, many utilities are shifting their contracting focus to the term market to meet unfilled needs in the second half of this decade, and utilities with existing Russian enriched uranium contracts are actively seeking replacement supplies in the market.
Given past cuts to primary production and inventory optimization by utilities and producers, the uranium market is rapidly becoming production-driven, where spot and long-term prices more closely correlate to the marginal cost of uranium production. Accordingly, several producers have announced production restarts from idle mines in the last few months. Kazatomprom also recently decided to increase 2024 Kazakh production to 90% of nominal capacity from the current 80% level.
Although global reactor requirements are quite flat through 2024, UxC forecasts that significant demand growth from 2025 to 2040 will necessitate new production as resources are exhausted at several uranium projects. In addition to transitioning to a production-driven market, a large percentage of production exists in regions of the world with high geopolitical risk, which makes the market vulnerable to future disruptions and price volatility.
UxC’s Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) report is designed to examine developments and discern trends in the uranium market, including the likely future course of prices under different market scenarios. The UMO is updated quarterly to provide subscribers with the latest information and analyses on which to base their decisions. Updates of leading market indicators are also provided on a monthly basis to ensure you are current with the latest trends and developments in the uranium market.
A table of contents from a previous report has been provided for your review.
Each quarter, UxC releases a new Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) that contains detailed up-to-date analysis on the uranium market. UxC makes available any individual report for sale as a stand alone report. In each UMO, topical essays are devoted to topics such as current market developments, major market events, and long-term market trends.
This quarter’s essay, “Capital Raises and Future Production Potential,” analyzes the amount of aggregate capital raised for the top 20 junior uranium companies in the last 3+ years from 2020 to 2023 and its correlation to progress in the advancement of future uranium projects.
An annual subscription to the UMO costs US$8,500.00, which includes four quarterly reports as well as monthly price indicator updates.
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The Uranium Market Outlook is a quarterly report on the uranium market that examines recent and prospective spot and long-term contract market activity, supply and demand trends, supplier developments, and the outlook for prices over the short and long term. The UMO also includes a topical essay on important developments that are shaping the market and detailed findings from UxC’s proprietary indicator system that analyzes trends in key factors influencing future prices. UxC also includes uranium demand forecasts based on the proprietary UxC Requirements Model (URM). Please see our product flier in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.
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After a chain of migrations of various ethnic populations in ancient times from locations such as the Fertile Crescent as well as Northeast and Central Asia, what came to be known as the Chechen and Avar peoples settled in the Northern Caucasus region. For centuries, this was the site of various invasions and imperial conflicts, involving empires such as the Cimmerians, Mongols, Scythians, Persians, Ottomans, and Safavids.
It was not until 1859 CE at the end of the Caucasian War that the Chechens and Avars would meet their greatest challenge, one which still torments them today.
https://hir.harvard.edu/the-bleeding-puzzle-of-chechnya-and-dagestan
I am reproducing another article here about Chechnya, and how the people fought and won, then, 2 years later, lost.
March 12, 20228:27 AM ET
Heard on Weekend Edition Saturday
Russia unleashes a heavy bombing campaign. Cities and towns are reduced to rubble. Thousands of civilians are killed.
Russia did this twice — against fellow Russian citizens — in Chechnya in the 1990s. That raises the question of whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the same playbook as he wages war in Ukraine today.
In Chechnya, a tiny Muslim republic in southern Russia with just 1.5 million people, resistance to Russian rule dates back at least two centuries. Rebels there began agitating for independence after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
After a couple of years of increasing tension, Russia unleashed a major invasion marked by relentless airstrikes and salvos of heavy artillery. Thousands of fighters and tens of thousands of Chechen civilians were killed. The Chechen capital, Grozny, was laid to waste.
Block after block, most every building was completely gutted. No other city had been so intensely bombed for decades. The devastation evoked those black-and-white photos of European cities pummeled in World War II.
Russia waged the campaign for two years, with its powerful military trying and repeatedly failing to crush a small band of rebels. Remarkably, Russia lost.
President Boris Yeltsin’s government in 1996 signed a peace treaty with Chechnya, removed all Russian troops from the territory and granted broad autonomy to Chechnya, though not formal independence.
But three years later, as Yeltsin was about to leave office, he named an obscure spy turned politician to be his prime minister — Vladimir Putin.
Putin assumed that office on Aug. 9, 1999, and by the end of that month, Russia was waging a renewed bombing campaign against Chechen rebels in an attempt to reverse the earlier humiliation.
The second Chechen war was also brutal, though it proved more effective. Russian forces took control of the breakaway republic after just a few months.
In March 2000, a triumphant Putin, who had by this time become president, flew to Grozny in a Russian fighter jet. He emerged from the aircraft in a full pilot suit, to commemorate the victory.
Putin installed a Kremlin-friendly leader, Akhmad Kadyrov, to strengthen his hold of the territory. Kadyrov was assassinated in 2004, but his son, Ramzan Kadyrov, now rules Chechnya.
In the current battle in Ukraine, Chechen forces have been sent in to fight with the Russian military.
Thomas de Waal, a journalist who covered Chechnya in the 1990s, said he sees many similarities between then and now.
“There are some pretty disturbing parallels,” said de Waal, who’s now in London with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The use of heavy artillery, the indiscriminate attacking of an urban center. They bring back some pretty terrible memories for those of us who covered the Chechnya war of the 1990s.”
There are political parallels as well, he said
“There was a project to restore Chechnya to Russian control, and nowadays in 2022, to restore Ukraine to the Russian sphere of influence,” said de Waal. “And there was no Plan B. Once the people started resisting, which came as a surprise in Chechnya and is coming as a surprise in Ukraine, there was no political Plan B about what to do with the resistance.”
He said Putin was expecting little or no pushback, as happened when Russian troops quickly and bloodlessly seized Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Instead, Putin got Chechnya, 1994.
After more than two weeks of heavy fighting in Ukraine, the Russian invasion is moving far more slowly than planned.
With their superior firepower, Russian forces are closing in on Ukraine’s cities. But the Ukrainians are still resisting fiercely and still hold the capital, Kyiv, and other large urban centers.
Meanwhile, the civilian toll is mounting.
“When Russia says that it is ‘not waging war against civilians,’ I call out the names of these murdered children first,” Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska said in an open letter this past week. “Perhaps the most terrifying and devastating of this invasion are the child casualties.”
At least 549 civilians have been killed and nearly 1,000 injured, according to the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. The actual number could be much higher, according the office.
“Schools, hospitals, and kindergartens have been hit – with hugely devastating consequences,” the U.N. body said in a statement. “Civilians are being killed and maimed in what appear to be indiscriminate attacks, with Russian forces using explosive weapons with wide area effects in or near populated areas.”
U.S. intelligence officials painted a bleak picture this past week, predicting that urban fighting in the coming weeks could be even more intense.
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, testifying Thursday before the Senate Intelligence Committee, said, “Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by setbacks and instead may escalate, essentially doubling down.”
Greg Myre is an NPR national security correspondent who reported from Chechnya in the 1990s.
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