In 2016, Ann Pettifor wrote, in her book The Production of Money, that if we allow the banking system to continue with no progressive changes, then:
The recurring financial crises of the last four decades will roll on relentlessly and lead inevitably to graver social and political upheavals and even war.
And it has continued through the Covid Crisis which began probably late 2019. Now we are in the era of world division and endless war. Our societies are polarised, and our social media, already running negative dominated algorithms, is entering ChatGPT era. The Chat Bot is with us in all our interactions. Bloomberg has introduced new financial tools using ChatGPT. Some are excited by this roll out of Artificial Intelligence; some want to postpone it, some countries have banned it. But the genie is out of the bottle and maybe our banking systems will apply it, and then, where will that lead?
If we have petroyuan as well as petrodollars, what will ChatGPT do on the trading floors?
We are still hurting from the 2007-8 crash:
The US Treasury estimated that 8.8 million jobs were lost in the US alone, and $19 trillion of household wealth was destroyed during the 2007–09 crisis.
Flawed financial global systems just seem to get worse, no matter how hard alternative and sound approaches have been argued historically, the least good plans, such as the catastrophic Chicago Plan, have been adopted. The suffering planet and most of the 7 billion citizens on it have endured dreadful consequences.
Climate Change is worsening day by day, we see the awful results as the daily news plays out. We knew we had to change our behaviours 50 years ago, and build in resilience to our infrastructures, but the money was not directed in that way with the real will required.
Human impact (overfishing) has damaged around 80 percent of our oceans. Our glaciers are disappearing due to our over use of fossil fuels. Most of our freshwater sources are gone, only 2 percent remains. Wonderful people are fighting to protect and conserve what is left, but the money people are not backing their efforts sufficiently. Our every second breath comes thanks to the oxygen delivered from the oceans. The faulty machinations of the money people are snuffing out life faster than it can recover.
Here in the UK, people are striking because of inadequate income to meet rising bills and inflation. Many have not had a sufficient pay rise for at least 10 years, and every pay offer is so trivial as to be nothing more than an insult.
BRIC countries (the developing countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, have become major game players due to their alliance.
Borders between countries may be permeable if dominated by another, or cross border conflicts ensue. Coercion vs cooperation can induce fear or optimism for a better life. Sovereignty may exist for centuries then come under threat.
Taiwan. It has always been ruled independently: first, of course, by the regime of Chiang Kai-shek, who wanted to “recover the mainland.”https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/has-taiwan-always-been-part-of-china/
Our tribal, warring ancestors had a pattern of fighting and conquering for thousands of years. Historians tell us about Ukraine invasions thousands of years ago:
Different parts of the area that is today Ukraine were invaded and occupied in the 1st millennium BCE by the Cimmerians, Scythians, and Sarmatians and in the 1st millennium CE by the Goths, Huns, Bulgars, Avars, Khazars, and Magyars (Hungarians). Slavic tribes settled there after the 4th century. Kyiv was the chief town. The Mongol conquest in the mid-13th century decisively ended Kyivan power.https://www.britannica.com/summary/Ukraine
Now Mongolia is restricted by its border with Russia to one side and China to the other. Its current economic progress is due to its dependence on energy from Russia and supply of vital goods from China. Mongolia retains its sovereignty for now.
We have had a period of trade where ‘globalisation’ has created positives and negatives in trade, but also industrialised systems for container ports, the latest being one built by China in Greece. These ports greatly improve the economy of countries once they are part of the trading system. The high cost of building the ports often leaves the recipient country in debt to the donor country, with obligations.
Globalization refers to the process of expanding your business operations onto a global scale. This can include selling products or services in other countries or setting up offices or factories in other parts of the world. Regionalization is the opposite of globalization – it refers to the process of dividing your business into smaller units that operate within specific geographic regions.
Christianity and Islam are examples of globalization. Historically, belief systems have been pushed on to militarily beaten populations, until they are assimilated into that belief and trading system.
Usually militaries will provide security for trade.
Globalization and regionalization have led to the removal of certain traditions and cultures in society. This happened when people became a global village, and others distanced themselves from the rest of the world.
An analysis of our changes in how we trade with one another after Covid and the event when the Suez Canal became blocked is discussed here:
Some analysts and commentators see a wave of deglobalization forging ahead. The Economist predicted on 24 January 2019: “The new world will work differently. Slowbalisation will lead to deeper links within regional blocs. Supply chains in North America, Europe and Asia are sourcing more from closer to home. In Asia and Europe most trade is already intra-regional, and the share has risen since 2011.” And in the Financial Times, Martin Wolf wrote on 10 December 2020: “The plausible future is not that international exchange is going to die. But it is likely to become more regional and more virtual.”https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/regionalization-globalization-future-direction-trade/
We are now in a ferment of change, caught on the back foot, our world infrastructures are not prepared. Amid the instability, attempts are made to firm up trade relations and diplomacy, but such relations are fragile which reflects the dying planet. There is no certainty for the future though treaties are signed based on a vague belief that some of us will survive past 2050.