Biggest El Niño for a century forecast to bring UK more autumn rain and storms

‘Unprecedented’ weather pattern over Pacific Ocean to be felt worldwide, with severe droughts expected in some areas

Matthew Weaver and Damien GayleFri 21 Aug 2026 15.10 BSTShare

The El Niño event developing over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest for more than a century and make 2027 another record-breaking year for heat, the UK’s Met Office has said.

Increased rainfall and storms are forecast to hit the UK this autumn as a result of the “unprecedented” weather pattern, while the pulse in heat it generates means the global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5C above the preindustrial average, according to the national weather service.

Some scientists have said temperatures could rise by as much as 1.7C during 2027. “We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” said Prof Adam Scaife, the Met Office’s head of long-range forecasting. “I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.”

Scaife said a typical El Niño involved Pacific sea temperatures rising by more than 1C, “with 2C being a really big event”. This year Pacific sea temperatures are expected to rise by 3C, making this El Niño “the largest since the 19th century”, according to the Met Office.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Scaife said: “We’re expecting the biggest El Niño for over a century, peaking at something over 3C. That is unheard of in modern climate records … It’s up 2C degrees already.”

He said the effects would be felt worldwide, adding they would be “particularly strong throughout the tropics, where we expect really severe droughts in places like South America and the west Pacific”.

He said: “Then there are wave-like disturbances that come out from the tropics and affect places like the UK. So we already see signals for increased rainfall and storminess in the autumn here in the UK around November time.”

There is also a heightened risk of drought in southern Africa and north-east Australia, while north-western Europe – including the UK – was likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions, the Met Office said.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/21/increased-rainfall-and-storms-to-hit-uk-due-to-biggest-el-nino-for-a-century-say-met-office

And burning fossil fuels has accelerated this formidable result of heightened heating of the oceans.