This was a week which crystallized a number of things. When you add them all together, however, the key thing is that it demonstrated just how important the USA has become, through the Trump administration, in aiding the Russian war effort. This might have been hidden in all the distracting stardust being thrown in the air about the Graham Tariff Bill, or the recently announced (extremely weird) possible sale of some motley air defense capabilities to Ukraine (arrival uncertain and unknown). However, behind the stardust which the press seems too out of its depth to properly interrogate the reality is that the war has entered into a fascinating contrast.
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On the land, where the Ukrainians were less reliant on the USA, it is the Ukrainians who are showing the initiative and dealing some substantial blows to Russian military strength. If what we are hearing about Operation Vivaldi is only partially true, the Ukrainians are continuing to advance in the combined operations of infantry and UAVs.
In the ranged war, relying on Ukrainian sources, the Ukrainians are also showing some important strengths—when they concentrate on the right targets. However it is in their ranged campaign against the Ukrainians, aided enormously by the USA starving Ukraine of air defense (a great example of why relying on the weapons of another power is always so dangerous) that the Russians are being their most effective—and almost certainly will continue to be so for the upcoming winter.
Add it up, and what we see is that Russia’s area of initiative in the war has been enormously abetted by the USA and Donald Trump.
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“In addition to the advance itself, we can say that during this operation a fairly large number of enemy officers were also destroyed and a fairly significant number of enemy personnel were taken prisoner. Perhaps, in recent years, this is the largest replenishment of the exchange fund that came from the Ukrainian side,”
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The Ukrainian General Staff claimed 11,090 Russian personnel losses in the seven daily reports from 14 to 20 September 2026, an average of about 1,584 a day. Here is a breakdown.
Russia Batters Ukraine At Range
The last week was actually a lighter week than the one before when it came to Russian ranged attacks on Ukraine. They launched attacks every night, but with a smaller number of systems than the seven days previously. Here is a table of the number of units attacking—mostly drones (which means Geran/Shaheds) from Sept 14-19. We do not have last night’s figures yet.
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The reality of the ranged war, even with these reduced attacks, remains the same however. Ukraine can do little to intercept Russian ballistic missiles. The attack on 17 September, for instance, the only example of the Russians making a large ballistic missile assault last week, saw the Ukrainians claiming that they could not intercept one of them. The Ukrainian Air Force listed only Shahed/Gerans and Banderols as being neutralized that night.
Indeed, this slower week could be a sign of the Russians stocking up for larger attacks in the fall and winter. They have a track record of doing that.
This is the reality. Ukraine, because of the US depriving it of Patriots. Even in the announcement yesterday that the US might be selling some air defense capability to Europe to pass on to Ukraine, there was no mention of Patriots. What was announced was some “possible” sale of deficient systems. Indeed, the press did not even know how to report what happened—as in this CBS report.
Trump, Diesel And Ukrainian Energy Strikes
Another area where the Ukrainians confirmed that they can be effective when not impeded in the USA, is their ongoing campaign against Russian fuel production. We have confirmation of that this week because Donald Trump came out and pleaded with the Ukrainians to do Putin a favor and stop attacking Russian refineries.
Things were so bad, that Trump begged once and lied twice—before the Ukrainians made it clear exactly what their position is. It was a fascinating “exchange” that started last Sunday (13 September). Then Trump said this to the press:
“Mr. Zelenskyy has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia…We spoke to Mr. Zelenskyy about it. There are plenty of other targets. Don’t hit diesel fuel, because that’s hurting, that’s hurting the world.”
However, Trump decided to blame the Ukrainians and help Putin when discussing the issue publicly. And this was not all. On September 14, Trump doubled-down on his claim that the rise in diesel prices was Ukraine’s fault but, miraculously, claimed that he had gotten the Ukrainians and the Russians to agree to stop all energy attacks. He tweeted:
“Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise!…The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran.”
It is still shocking how the President of the USA can just make up nonsense, spew it out, and some people will believe him.
Zelensky even openly contradicted Trump, in denying any deal had been reached. He said Ukraine might consider a deal, but as of now“Russia hasn’t stopped striking our energy sector… And our responses to them for this are tangible.”
It was a revealing exchange. As always for Trump, Ukraine is the baddies and Russia is to be protected. That will never change.
The more interesting thing is the confirmation of the seriousness of the Ukrainian campaign on Russian oil production. It is why this must be the key target of the Ukrainian ranged campaign. If the Ukrainians have no ability to defend themselves against Russian ballistic missiles because of the USA, the least they can do is not listen to the USA when the American president pleads with them to stop their most effective strategic campaign.
Retired, living in the Scottish Borders after living most of my life in cities in England. I can now indulge my interest in all aspects of living close to nature in a wild landscape. I live on what was once the Iapetus Ocean which took millions of years to travel from the Southern Hemisphere to here in the Northern Hemisphere. That set me thinking and questioning and seeking answers.
In 1998 I co-wrote Millennium Countdown (US)/ A Business Guide to the Year 2000 (UK) see https://www.abebooks.co.uk/products/isbn/9780749427917
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